{"id":402,"date":"2016-10-13T22:50:39","date_gmt":"2016-10-13T22:50:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dev.paulgibbons.net\/?p=402"},"modified":"2016-10-13T22:50:39","modified_gmt":"2016-10-13T22:50:39","slug":"us-really-smarter-one-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/paulgibbons.net\/oldsite\/us-really-smarter-one-us\/","title":{"rendered":"Are All of Us Really Smarter Than One of Us?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Don\u2019t confuse group wisdom with the madness of crowds<\/strong><\/h1>\n

\u201cAll of us is smarter than one of us\u201d is a nice-sounding\u00a0aphorism. It is the sort of platitude that\u00a0gets thousands of retweets and shares, while\u00a0making the proclaimer sound like a team player:\u00a0immensely humble, and up-to-date with their\u00a0management reading.<\/p>\n

But pithy feelgood phrases such as this\u00a0get in the way of real management learning\u00a0and insight, and can actually impede the\u00a0development of group wisdom in teams and\u00a0organizations. The phrase is not unarguably true.\u00a0It is wrong as often as it is right, and falls under\u00a0a branch of management thinking that might\u00a0be called \u2018pop leadership\u2019 \u2013 a category that has\u00a0bloomed as social media has forced \u2018wisdom\u2019\u00a0into smaller and smaller bites.<\/p>\n

Understanding when it is true (or false) that\u00a0many minds are better than one, is an essential\u00a0leadership capability. So how can a leader tell?\u00a0Under what conditions do groups make better\u00a0decisions than individual experts?<\/p>\n

Mobs: masterminds or madmen?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In 1907, Francis Galton found that the mean of\u00a0social group estimates could be more accurate\u00a0than those of experts. The \u2018mob\u2019, it seemed, had\u00a0more group wisdom than the pros. Since then,\u00a0100 years of research has suggested that this\u00a0can be the case with many kinds of predictions,\u00a0stock markets, political elections, and quiz\u00a0shows. The idea that \u2018all of us is smarter than one\u00a0of us\u2019, unlike many pop leadership intonations,\u00a0does have some research grounding.<\/p>\n

Yet 70 years earlier, another publication,\u00a0Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness\u00a0of Crowds<\/em>, sounded a warning note. Its author,\u00a0Charles Mackay, debunked the classic crowd-follies\u00a0of the time \u2013 financial bubbles, forecasters,\u00a0cults, religious wars, and witch hunts. \u00a0(Mackay would no doubt be delighted that, 180 years on, that we have left such things behind. Not!)<\/p>\n

So are groups good or bad at making calls?\u00a0Ideally, in business, our different perspectives,\u00a0world views, information, and expertise lead to\u00a0some kind of convergence \u2013 a group wisdom.\u00a0Those perspectives are often brought together\u00a0in a business meeting \u2013 of which the average\u00a0manager attends 30 each week. Managers\u00a0hope that group wisdom will emerge from\u00a0deliberations; indeed we rely on the effectiveness\u00a0of meeting-based decision making, both in\u00a0business, and in public policy. Yet those same\u00a0managers claim that 40-50% of their meetings\u00a0produce no value.<\/p>\n

Meeting doom<\/strong><\/h2>\n

We have all been on work teams that have made\u00a0terrible \u2013 not just suboptimal \u2013 decisions. It is\u00a0common to hear of meetings where those poor\u00a0decisions were the product of tortured hours of\u00a0conversation. Businesses the world over put in\u00a0significant resources (i.e. time) only to arrive at\u00a0counterproductive resolutions. Thus, billions of\u00a0dollars a year are wasted on meetings that trigger\u00a0terrible decisions. What is going wrong?<\/p>\n

It might just be that we get on too well. In\u00a0the 1960s, Yale psychologist Irving Janis coined\u00a0the term \u2018groupthink\u2019: \u201cThe more amiability\u00a0and esprit de corps<\/em> there is among the members\u00a0of a policy-making in-group, the greater the\u00a0danger that independent critical thinking will be\u00a0replaced by groupthink\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n

The phenomenon of \u2018groupthink\u2019 suggests\u00a0that critical discussion can be suppressed in\u00a0groups because of loyalty, conflict aversion, or\u00a0other dysfunctions. Yet human beings enjoy\u00a0such camaraderie: we want our work teams to\u00a0be collegial. However, four powerful demons\u00a0common to groups weaken their decisionmaking\u00a0power\u2026<\/p>\n

Group demons<\/strong>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The\u00a0Rooster<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Bad decisions by a team\u00a0are exacerbated by the\u00a0overconfidence effect, a\u00a0cognitive bias that rears its\u00a0head because consensus may\u00a0produce more confidence\u00a0in decisions \u2013 without\u00a0necessarily improving decision quality. Here, again,\u00a0is a double-edged sword; we want consensus\u00a0and confidence, yet those can be the enemies of\u00a0accuracy.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Lion<\/strong><\/h3>\n

<\/p>\n

The business world is replete\u00a0with examples of charismatic\u00a0or domineering leaders who\u00a0trample dissent. Were power\u00a0and wisdom correlated,\u00a0group decisions swayed by\u00a0the most powerful would\u00a0not be problematic. Yet we know hubris intoxicates\u00a0the powerful, and under stressful circumstances\u00a0wisdom and power may be inversely related.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Hyena<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Dissent and debate produce\u00a0better decisions, but conflict\u00a0and poor group functioning\u00a0mean debates are poorly\u00a0conducted and produce\u00a0suboptimal outcomes.\u00a0Leaders are not typically\u00a0trained in the arts of facilitation. Facilitation skills\u00a0are more typically the province of counsellors,\u00a0mediators, and organization development\u00a0consultants. Leaders require the humility to hear \u2013\u00a0and retain \u2013 such advice.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Shee<\/strong>p<\/strong><\/h3>\n

There is a moral case for\u00a0team diversity, but also an\u00a0efficiency case. Groups\u00a0that lack diversity (not just\u00a0visible diversity, but diversity\u00a0of style, and perspective)\u00a0make worse decisions.\u00a0I have worked with groups composed of senior,\u00a0well-educated, middle-aged, affluent, single-race and-\u00a0nationality men who consider their team\u00a0to be diverse! \u00a0(I expect they were referring to their ties, or to their football teams!)<\/p>\n

To exorcise the demons, we need balance.\u00a0Too much amiability can lead to groupthink,\u00a0but too little leads to hostile environments. Too\u00a0much diversity, and overly broad participation,\u00a0can lead to cumbersome decision-making\u00a0processes; too little reduces creativity and\u00a0effectiveness. Consensus and confidence in\u00a0decisions is key, but groups must avoid\u00a0self-delusion, and not confuse confidence\u00a0with competence.<\/p>\n

Group wisdom and the role of the leader<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u00a0\u201cA feast to which many contribute is better than a\u00a0dinner provided out of a single purse.<\/em>\u201d (Aristotle)<\/p>\n

Although there are inherent weaknesses\u00a0in team decision making, good leaders can\u00a0overcome them, and embrace the wisdom of crowds<\/strong> that Galton once identified.\u00a0Understanding the truths below is a big step on\u00a0the way to creating a \u2018group wisdom mindset<\/strong>\u2019\u00a0\u2013 the realization that groups are often wiser,\u00a0tempered with awareness of factors that suggest\u00a0when they are not.<\/p>\n

Group truth<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Influence can be ruinous. Models of leadership\u00a0that we inherit from the media show strong-willed\u00a0charismatic leaders (think Patton and A Few Good\u00a0Men<\/em>, or more recently, Jobs<\/em> and Selma<\/em>). While\u00a0leadership, as taught by boutiques and business\u00a0schools, is more nuanced, leaders\u2019 effectiveness at\u00a0influencing remains at its core.<\/p>\n

In fact, leaders need to temper their own\u00a0influence<\/strong>. Because of their position, their views will\u00a0be given more weight anyway \u2013 and by holding\u00a0back, they may permit ideas and perspectives to\u00a0surface that might otherwise have been suppressed\u00a0by their charisma and power. This is not an easy\u00a0task for people who have spent their entire lives\u00a0being influential.<\/p>\n

Experts are often wrong.<\/strong> Beware experts when\u00a0they make predictions. It is all too easy for groups\u00a0to be swayed by self-sure experts, but research on\u00a0expert predictions, conducted by Professor Philip Tetlock,\u00a0suggests that when an expert predicts something is\u00a0an absolute certainty, it fails to happen 25% of the\u00a0time, and when experts suggest there is zero chance\u00a0of something happening, it happens roughly 15%\u00a0of the time!<\/p>\n

One of the most interesting implications of a\u00a0more volatile world, suggested by scholar Nassim\u00a0Taleb, is that we need to create business portfolio\u00a0strategies that are less sensitive to our forecasting\u00a0ability \u2013 so-called non-predictive decision making.<\/p>\n

Diversity is abrasive.<\/strong> Group wisdom is a function\u00a0of heterogeneity. In experiments on prediction, the\u00a0greater the diversity of estimates, the more accurate\u00a0their average tends to be. Yet nobody really likes\u00a0dissent when they are trying to make progress, nor\u00a0the oddball team member\u2019s ideas when they are\u00a0trying to converge.<\/p>\n

But leaders need to preserve the voice of the\u00a0person everybody wants to strangle. Leaders know\u00a0that quiet people have good ideas too \u2013 perhaps\u00a0better ones because they spend more time thinking\u00a0and less talking! Great leaders amplify those\u00a0voices to give their perspectives equal voice, and\u00a0proactively hire people who may challenge\u00a0the group.<\/p>\n

Estimates are anchors.<\/strong> Where group decision\u00a0making involves numbers, such as predicting the\u00a0size of a market, the pricing of a product or the\u00a0length of time to execute a project, the decision\u00a0making is prey to a cognitive bias called the\u00a0anchoring effect. An initial proposal is offered, but\u00a0once that credible estimate is lodged in decision\u00a0makers\u2019 minds, subsequent estimates tend to\u00a0converge upon that \u2018anchor\u2019 (estimate).<\/p>\n

Were the first guess always the best guess, this\u00a0would not be a problem, but frequently the first\u00a0guess is way off reality. One remedy for this is that\u00a0private reflection should precede public discussion.\u00a0This is the opposite of what was taught 20 years ago\u00a0\u2013 and what still happens frequently in companies \u2013\u00a0where group \u2018brainstorming\u2019 was seen as the best\u00a0way to achieve creativity and divergent perspectives.<\/p>\n

Tech is making us intellectually lazy.<\/strong> When was the last time\u00a0you tried to drive somewhere new without GPS?\u00a0I seriously wonder how I used to get around\u00a0before Google Maps. We have lost the ability\u00a0to find things by ourselves and have become\u00a0intellectually lazy.<\/p>\n

A similar phenomenon is happening in business where decisions are supported by\u00a0analytics. Analytics are highly algorithm dependent,\u00a0vulnerable to sampling errors, and to errors in initial\u00a0assumptions \u2013 \u2018garbage in, garbage out\u2019 (GIGO). As artificial\u00a0intelligence grows stronger, senior leaders will have\u00a0to retain the critical faculties they stand to lose,\u00a0and have to know enough about what is \u2018under the\u00a0model\u2019s hood\u2019 to know when it might be wrong<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Voting is used badly.<\/strong> Leaders have considerable\u00a0say over the process by which groups make\u00a0decisions, more so even than they have on the\u00a0content of the decision. Development of this faculty,\u00a0too, is under-represented in typical leadership\u00a0education. Voting is a feature of group decision\u00a0making but is very poorly used.<\/p>\n

Premature voting is almost always an error<\/em>,\u00a0because it forces groups to choose between two\u00a0or more options when, in some cases, a blended\u00a0solution is best. When voting is used, it should not\u00a0be the end of the decision-making process but,\u00a0rather, just a waypoint. First, the majority may be\u00a0wrong, and there is an opportunity for them to\u00a0ask themselves what they might have missed \u2013 a\u00a0\u2018split decision\u2019 may be a bad decision. Second, the\u00a0minority (on a leadership team or board) must get\u00a0behind the majority decision and that, too, presents\u00a0an opportunity for post-voting dialogue.<\/p>\n

Many of these guidelines require a balancing\u00a0act. This balancing act is much more difficult\u00a0to execute than dogmatic prescriptions which\u00a0fit nicely into tweets:\u00a0\u201cgreat\u00a0leaders always \u2026.\u201d, or \u201csix things great leaders\u00a0do\u2026\u201d that get an astonishing \u2013 and undue \u2013\u00a0amount of attention.<\/p>\n

Research on individual and group decision\u00a0making, cognitive biases and heuristics,\u00a0naturalistic decision making \u2013 trusting your gut\u00a0\u2013 is still lacking and is a relatively young area.\u00a0We have recently learned many of the sources of\u00a0error, but we are still far less good at producing\u00a0concrete prescriptive advice on personal and\u00a0group decision making.<\/p>\n

When seeking \u2018group wisdom\u2019, the leader\u2019s\u00a0primary role is to be the guardian of the\u00a0decision-making process by being alert to the\u00a0above sources of error. Groups can be powerful\u00a0decision makers if managed properly. But\u00a0they too rarely are.<\/p>\n

I’m\u00a0the author of The Science of\u00a0Successful Organizational Change (from which this is excerpted), Reboot Your Career, and Reboot Your Life.<\/em>\u00a0 More information on writing, speaking, and consulting can be found atwww.paulgibbons.net<\/a>. \u00a0This article first appeared in the excellent Dialogue Review<\/em>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Don\u2019t confuse group wisdom with the madness of crowds \u201cAll of us is smarter than one of us\u201d is a nice-sounding\u00a0aphorism. It is the sort of platitude that\u00a0gets thousands of retweets and shares, while\u00a0making the proclaimer sound like a team player:\u00a0immensely humble, and up-to-date with their\u00a0management reading. But pithy feelgood phrases such as this\u00a0get in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":404,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[41,39,42,40],"yoast_head":"\nAre All of Us Really Smarter Than One of Us? - Paul Gibbons<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Don't confuse group wisdom with the madness of crowds. "All of us is smarter than one of us" sounds nice, but isn't always true! Know when it is and isn't.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/paulgibbons.net\/oldsite\/us-really-smarter-one-us\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Are All of Us Really Smarter Than One of Us? - Paul Gibbons\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Don't confuse group wisdom with the madness of crowds. "All of us is smarter than one of us" sounds nice, but isn't always true! 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